Decisions

Investigate / decide

L. Cartwright / Ward N3 / Bed 14At risk / Active run 09:15 / queue contextOperational decision support. Not clinical advice.

Run 09:15 / Source 09:12

Rules v1 / Forecast v1

Source: 09:12; Usable with warnings
Profile: Default morning protection; Partial source detail
Actor: Maya Sutton; Intervention logging authority
Selected case: L. Cartwright; Ward N3 / Bed 14
State: At risk; L. Cartwright may block C. Reeves arrival 12:45 and Theatre 5 15:00 exposed.

Decision queue

Queue context is preserved while the selected case is worked.

24 in scope

L. Cartwright may block C. Reeves arrival 12:45 and Theatre 5 15:00 exposed.

Secondary alert preserves queue context and active-run evidence.

L. Cartwright / Ward N3 / Bed 14

At risk

Recommendation: Escalate pharmacy; Medication or TTO work is the leading release blocker.
Expected effect: Expected delay reduction 45 min; Lewis Graham / Pharmacy
Probability: 58%; Thresh. 65% / rules r1 / p p1
Delay band: 1-2 hours; TTO incomplete; discharge lounge slot unconfirmed
Ready comparator: 12:20 vs 13:45; Required by 13:45; C. Reeves arrival 12:45 / Theatre 5 15:00 exposed
Owner: Maya Sutton; Active run 09:15 / source 09:12

Maya Sutton can inspect breach handling but cannot mark or reopen breach state.

Linked chain

Discharge, dependency, admission, and protection deadline remain in one chain.

Discharge caseL. CartwrightExpected discharge 10:45; predicted ready 12:20
Bed dependencyWard N3 / Bed 14Same bed group dependency
Planned admissionC. ReevesC. Reeves arrival 12:45
Theatre listTheatre 5Theatre 5 15:00 exposed
OutcomeAt riskPredicted 12:20; required 13:45

Current blocker ledger
Blocker	State	Owner	Threshold	Source detail
TTO	In progress	Pharmacy	120 min escalation window	TTO incomplete; discharge lounge slot unconfirmed; source Updated source 09:13
Transport	Review	Transport	120 min escalation window	Transport checked against active run; source Updated source 09:13
Discharge summary	Review	Ward Administration	90% completion floor	Summary checked against configured completion floor
Downstream dependency	Exposed	Site operations	Admission arrival and theatre buffer	C. Reeves arrival 12:45 / Theatre 5 15:00 exposed

Intervention order

2 available

Escalate pharmacy

Medication or TTO work is the leading release blocker.

Expected delay reduction 45 minLewis Graham / PharmacyMessage PreviewResult: Intervention in progress

Assign issue owner

Ownership is required where dependency evidence is still moving.

Creates named operating ownerMaya Sutton / Site OperationsTaskResult: Intervention in progress

Evidence grid

Current value, comparator, threshold, source, and freshness stay visible.

Measure	Value	Comparator	Threshold	Source	Freshness	Explanation
Primary blocker	TTO incomplete; discharge lounge slot unconfirmed	Task status	120 min escalation window / 90% summary floor	Discharge task source	Updated source 09:13	TTO incomplete; discharge lounge slot unconfirmed
Readiness forecast	58%; 1-2 hours	Expected discharge	At-risk probability threshold 65%	Prediction snapshot	Updated source 09:13	Expected discharge 10:45; predicted ready 12:20
Admission exposure	C. Reeves arrival 12:45	Admission dependency	Same-day protected bed comparator	Admission and bed dependency	Run 09:15	L. Cartwright may block C. Reeves arrival 12:45 and Theatre 5 15:00 exposed.
Theatre exposure	Theatre 5 15:00 exposed	Protection deadline	75 min protection buffer	Theatre and recovery context	Run 09:15	Required ready 13:45; predicted ready 12:20; Comparator inside active run

Why nowL. Cartwright

L. Cartwright may block C. Reeves arrival 12:45 and Theatre 5 15:00 exposed. 58% probability; 1-2 hours forecast; predicted ready 12:20 versus required ready 13:45.