Decisions

Investigate / decide

L. Cartwright / Ward N3 / Bed 14At risk / Active run 09:15 / queue contextOperational decision support. Not clinical advice.

Run 09:15 / Source 09:12

Rules v1 / Forecast v1

Decision queue

Queue context is preserved while the selected case is worked.

24 in scope

L. Cartwright may block C. Reeves arrival 12:45 and Theatre 5 15:00 exposed.

Secondary alert preserves queue context and active-run evidence.

L. Cartwright / Ward N3 / Bed 14

At risk

Recommendation: Escalate pharmacy; Medication or TTO work is the leading release blocker.
Expected effect: Expected delay reduction 45 min; Lewis Graham / Pharmacy
Probability: 58%; Thresh. 65% / rules r1 / p p1
Delay band: 1-2 hours; TTO incomplete; discharge lounge slot unconfirmed
Ready comparator: 12:20 vs 13:45; Required by 13:45; C. Reeves arrival 12:45 / Theatre 5 15:00 exposed
Owner: Maya Sutton; Active run 09:15 / source 09:12

Recommended action

Review the operational artifact, then log the intervention without losing context.

Ready

Escalate pharmacy

Medication or TTO work is the leading release blocker.

Recipient: Lewis Graham / Pharmacy
Expected effect: Expected delay reduction 45 min
Resulting state: Intervention in progress

Opens the action preview with recipient, message body, threshold rationale, and audit consequence.

Maya Sutton can inspect breach handling but cannot mark or reopen breach state.

Linked chain

Discharge, dependency, admission, and protection deadline remain in one chain.

Discharge caseL. CartwrightExpected discharge 10:45; predicted ready 12:20
Bed dependencyWard N3 / Bed 14Same bed group dependency
Planned admissionC. ReevesC. Reeves arrival 12:45
Theatre listTheatre 5Theatre 5 15:00 exposed
OutcomeAt riskPredicted 12:20; required 13:45

Current blocker ledger
Blocker	State	Owner	Threshold	Source detail
TTO	In progress	Pharmacy	120 min escalation window	TTO incomplete; discharge lounge slot unconfirmed; source Updated source 09:13
Transport	Review	Transport	120 min escalation window	Transport checked against active run; source Updated source 09:13
Discharge summary	Review	Ward Administration	90% completion floor	Summary checked against configured completion floor
Downstream dependency	Exposed	Site operations	Admission arrival and theatre buffer	C. Reeves arrival 12:45 / Theatre 5 15:00 exposed

Intervention order

2 available

Escalate pharmacy

Medication or TTO work is the leading release blocker.

Expected delay reduction 45 minLewis Graham / PharmacyMessage PreviewResult: Intervention in progress

Assign issue owner

Ownership is required where dependency evidence is still moving.

Creates named operating ownerMaya Sutton / Site OperationsTaskResult: Intervention in progress

Evidence grid

Current value, comparator, threshold, source, and freshness stay visible.

Measure	Value	Comparator	Threshold	Source	Freshness	Explanation
Primary blocker	TTO incomplete; discharge lounge slot unconfirmed	Task status	120 min escalation window / 90% summary floor	Discharge task source	Updated source 09:13	TTO incomplete; discharge lounge slot unconfirmed
Readiness forecast	58%; 1-2 hours	Expected discharge	At-risk probability threshold 65%	Prediction snapshot	Updated source 09:13	Expected discharge 10:45; predicted ready 12:20
Admission exposure	C. Reeves arrival 12:45	Admission dependency	Same-day protected bed comparator	Admission and bed dependency	Run 09:15	L. Cartwright may block C. Reeves arrival 12:45 and Theatre 5 15:00 exposed.
Theatre exposure	Theatre 5 15:00 exposed	Protection deadline	75 min protection buffer	Theatre and recovery context	Run 09:15	Required ready 13:45; predicted ready 12:20; Comparator inside active run

Why nowL. Cartwright

L. Cartwright may block C. Reeves arrival 12:45 and Theatre 5 15:00 exposed. 58% probability; 1-2 hours forecast; predicted ready 12:20 versus required ready 13:45.